Markov chains and study the possibilities and indicator of the prediction in accordance with theory

Did you hear about Andrei Markov theory, which are a Russian mathematician and whose theory name is Markov chains?

I will not dive too much in the deep mathematical details of this theory, but simply a study of the prospects for the limited number of cases to find out what are the prospects for the emergence of each case in the future.

First you must limit these cases and then calculate the probability of transition from each state to the other case.

Imagine, for example, you want to know whether tomorrow rainy or sunny.

Here we have two cases: sunny and rainy.

Now through information from previous years, for example, to extract the following possibilities:

- If today is sunny, what is the probability that rain tomorrow?

- If today is sunny, what is the likelihood that tomorrow will be sunny as well?

- If today rainy, what is the likelihood that tomorrow will be rainy?

- If today rainy, what is the probability that tomorrow will be sunny?

After knowing these ratios through the information that we have put them in a matrix called a Markov matrix.

Now to see the possibilities of tomorrow is it sunny or rainy we multiply the matrix with itself.

Depending on the value of today is it sunny or rainy; we can see the greatest possibility for tomorrow.

If we want to know the status of the day after tomorrow we multiply the last matrix with itself and also to know the result of the previous day (which is also the most likely) know the possibility of the day after tomorrow and so on.

Of course, as i learned that this theory is applied in world markets, but I looked so much I did not find direct application to them.

I made indicator does this matrix and gives me a greater likelihood of future candle.

The index is still a trial phase will require hard work to continue.

The results of course may vary with different frames which are normal and therefore it must control frames and consider before making the decision to enter.

And it may be the Login is proportionate to the frame.

Indicator shows blue lines for the possibility of the biggest red line for the possibility of the weakest.

The result will always be the candle before the last one, so the last candles must be compatible with the possibility.

You can download the indicator from here:

Future candle, Dolly 10, fibo average indicators

1 – Future candle indicator:

It is indicator gives a perception to the form of the coming candles , I frankly do not test it .

But according to some people who tested it , it gives correct perception about %60 , and the best way to use it by knowing what is the coming trend , and making all orders in the direction of the perception trend , and the best frame of it one hour frame.

 

2 – Dolly 10 indicator:

Good indicator gives entering levels in buying and selling and the targets. I have tested it on all frames , and all are good , but the best is one hour fame and it is good with couples .

3 – Fibo average indicator:

Very good indicator according to my test with all pairs and the best time frame is one hour frame

The best way to use it as my opinion is not to wait the breaking of the two lines with each other but by waiting the breaking the candle of the two lines and not one line then waiting to access and re- try the test and putting Stop of the highest candle break point of 5 points .

I see  it is wonderful indicator through putting it alone or with indicator of supports and resistances for example fibo to determine the targets accurately .

Grucha percentage v2, BBR , and MACD Signal Indicators

1- Grucha percentage v2 indicator :

The Access by the intersection of Red and Blue to buy higher and vice sale as described in the chart.

I Tried it on most frames,  best frame is one hour frame and also a half-hour early entry and either an excellent quarter-hour is a strong oscillation , I tried it on EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

 And I also tested it as well in settings line 50, 20 and 70 , it has the same idea actually of rsi indicator , and the results are excellent I see it more strong and better than rsi hundred times.

2 – BBR Indicator:

Indicator explicitly wonderful depends on stocks

As Explained by the owner of the indictor  , he enters with the first stock on small frames and takes small points ( scalping) and goes out , as my experience it is not good in the first signal.

And I found that the strongest emphasis is to have two indicators in the same color behind each other  in other words,  to have two red arrows and later  enter in the candle immediately following them.

I Tried it on the frame of minute to an hour

Frame 15 minutes is the most profits and less losses and more respectable .

3 – MACD Signal Indicator:

Very good with the oscillation and rallies

In oscillating day like this , you will find that the MACD candles very short so there is no entry in this day.

In the Rallies day

It gives very early and excellent entry stock .

I tried it on all fames , and the best one is one hour frame.

The Access with stocks after the opening of England market.

Commodity Channel Index: a multi -purpose indicators

There is a wide range of tools that can help you to improve business decisions. Some of these tools can give you direct references to the signing of the deal, while others simply just tell you the firmness and direction of the trend or the level of volatility. However, when trading options you have to know the sharp administrative changes in the price. So first you need to have to an indicator warns you before the happening of these transformations.

CCI indicator does that role. It alerts abrupt changes also tell you of the emergence of new trends, although the indicator has been developed primarily for work in the commodities market, but it can be used with currencies and indices. Commodity Channel Index helps you determine the Periodic direction for the price of an asset which measures the ratio between the price of the underlying and the moving average price for natural drift. Despite the lapse of more than two decades for the development of the ICC, but it is still very popular with experienced operators.

CCI estimation equation is as follows:

ICC = (price - average price) / (0.015 * standard deviation of prices).

When the price here is “typical price" is calculated using the following equation:

TP = (day + today's summit during today's closing price) / 3

The standard deviation is available at a price in 3 steps. SMA provides average values, and so the first step will put each on average compared to the model after taking only the absolute values. If you calculate the ICC for a period of 20 days, you have to do this subtraction of the twenty days prior to the current date. In the second period and eventually collect these values divided by the number of days of observation, transfer 20, for example. Due to the presence of disk laboratories 0015, the most common values of the ICC index ranging between -100 and 100.

You will also notice that the Commodity Channel Index measures the difference between the initial price and the average exchange rate. More positive value of the ICC, it is the rise in original power while increasing the negative value of the CCI refers to the opposite scenario.

You can apply in your deals as indicator simultaneously or as a key indicator, Depending on the previous application when the high CCI 100 pushes this refers to the prices and the strength to go to the formation of an upward trend. When reading the CPI has fallen below the level of -100, which indicates the degree of impairment and the price change indicates the beginning of the downward trend. From the point of view of the main index, the CCI can help you discover the event of overbooking or purchase orders with the change of momentum.

Momentum Indicators in Forex

As is the case with all the other indicators in several boxes in Forex trading, we find momentum indicators in Forex. These indicators are similar to all the other indicators and oscillators, such as "moving averages" or "MACD" which follows the main trend of the currency that relay. Some traders may consider an initial momentum index as an indicator during their trade in the Forex market, or the most important indicator in order to determine the direction of the main market and help in screening potential points to the decline in the market.

You can also say that the momentum indicator is a tendency for the market for a certain period of time. For example, the euro is falling against the dollar, and call this the "bearish momentum," where the market moves towards lower pair. The Help you get through the correct index will definitely help you through the process of trading through the application of the cursor on several time frames during the trading process. This helps in the process of supporting the entry and exit points in the plan you use.

Test the indicators first!

Remember that you need to use momentum indicators after the test is appropriate, and in conjunction with strong trading plan. Do not use indicators that were not familiar with the main characteristics of the main reactions to different market conditions over the standard trading days.

Some trading indicators may not be useful, for example, during periods of great volatility, and vice versa. Therefore, the correct understanding and good study of the tools that you apply to a plan in Forex trading, is one of the basic things. Momentum indicator may be used for a pair of Forex currencies such as the dollar / euro, or to a particular currency or commodity certain key, such as the U.S. dollar or gold, for example.

Traders may use some momentum indicators as well as to determine the scope of a particular trading. As is the case in the trading range, the momentum indicators Forex or activity help determine the point of force and payment that trader may trade where significant movements through the range, or even attempt to determine an exit point which may lead to a merger between the number of points.

The most common groups that I've found is used in coordination with the (average true range) or (SMA), the ideal hand, it is possible to identify some of the excellent trading settings using these tools. Therefore reiterate that he must test any new Forex strategy well before entering into live trading.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Swing Trading

Swing is one of the most famous trading in the financial markets, but, and as is the case with the rest of strategies Forex, there are pros and cons associated with dealing with the swing, and find out like these things early may be important to a report If you would like to handle this on a long-term trade.

Advantages of swing

You by swing can take advantage of situations the natural ebb and flow of the markets. Financial markets do not move in one direction and never. And through the ability to take advantage of this command, you can increase revenue and thus are theoretically achieve profits when the market rises over the next few days, and then check when profits fall, where it is certain to fall sooner or later.

Through the entry and exit to and from the Forex markets, you can identify more trading opportunities in the Forex. If you look at any financial table, you can see that there is a long-term pattern, but it may not be always in the market area of support or resistance. Through the entry and exit from the market over a few days, it is natural that you collect the profits, and you can select the new markets that are for other trades. This helps distribute risk, and the allocation of a much lower proportion of capital rather than the permanent need to Forex Margin Call. When you close your first position, you will not have to deposit more money in your account to cover the new situation.

The stop loss points in the swing characterized by trades of short-term smaller than trades with long periods of time. May be a stop loss points in the swing of 100 points based on Table 4 hours, while you may be a stop loss point on the weekly schedule of the building on the general pattern at 400 points. This command allows you to put larger sizes positions rather than deliberative capabilities very small through long-term trades.

Have clear boundaries. The swing trader is considered trading technically more, and thus usually has a specific area considered trading signal that runs contrary to what he wants. For this reason, you can know when the trading process does not work to your advantage, and you can limit the damage that may be caused by poor circulation process. Traders may have throughout the term in the habit to put greater distance when the markets are waiting for them to follow the "basics".

Disadvantages of swing

It is possible to be exposed a lot of goods. Just that the market is showing support or resistance in a particular area does not mean that he will be respected on this day. As you are in any time you place a trade, you run the risk of money, and therefore you run the risk of money in more times trader swing. Odds say you may be exposed to a loss from one period to another, regardless of the skill.

You must be familiar with an excellent technical analysis. While these are not necessarily point of the "negatives", they mean more work. Can anyone almost to know that the pattern is moving from the bottom left to the upper right on the table with the passage of time, but of trying to deal by swing on that table it to determine the points of entry and exit, and is something that can Analyst Technical done, but You have to learn the first, and this is it takes time.

Swing requires a different mindset and stronger nerves than other long trades. While rapid trading are not speculate necessarily, the rapid trader risks to exposed "because out of the market because of fear" as the withdrawals in the ranges narrow look more violent, who looks to the tables weekly, and this is something myself to all traders dealt with through the period of their trades.

Summary

As you can see, there are advantages and disadvantages for the Swing, as is the case with anything else. Frankly, the majorities of traders are doing different number from the strategies Forex because those markets are not always appropriate for a particular type of trading and may require the use of other types in some cases, and rolling good is the one who has the ability to use different types of trading in order to increase profit from Forex. Rolling must adapt to the market, and not vice versa.